Market Summary - February 13, 2026

On February 12, 2026, the US100 index experienced a significant decline, losing approximately 1.5%. This downturn in the Nasdaq 100 (US100) futures reflects a broader sell-off in US indices, which has been attributed to several interrelated factors.

Key Factors Influencing Market Movement

• Google's Upcoming AI Model Release: Google (GOOGL.US) is set to unveil its updated Gemini 3 Deep Think model. While Google is the only major tech company not experiencing a decline, the anticipation surrounding this release has contributed to market volatility. Investors are shifting their focus from the potential benefits of AI to concerns about which companies may be disrupted by AI advancements, leading to a "sell first, ask questions later" mentality, particularly affecting IT and SaaS sectors.
• Cisco's Underwhelming Guidance: Cisco's recent guidance for the current fiscal year fell short of market expectations, despite a solid quarterly performance. This has raised doubts about the assumption that hardware companies will automatically benefit from AI advancements, negatively impacting Cisco and its peers, including Arista Networks (ANET.US), which is facing pressure ahead of its earnings report.
• US Labor Market Data: Recent labor market data has alleviated some recession fears but may also delay the anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This shift in expectations could push the timeline for meaningful easing to at least May, which is not favorable for Wall Street, as many investors had positioned themselves for aggressive rate cuts this year.
• Goldman Sachs Data on CTA Funds: Data from Goldman Sachs indicates that Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), which employ systematic trend-following strategies, are likely to be net sellers of US equities this week. This selling pressure could intensify in a continued downside scenario, creating additional headwinds for the market.

Technical Analysis of US100

The US100 index has recently found support around the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). A potential decline towards the 24,350 level could signal a deeper correction and increased selling pressure. The 24,850 area is identified as a critical support zone, marked by previous price reactions in early December 2025 and early February 2026.

Market Outlook

As the market navigates these challenges, investors are advised to remain vigilant and consider the implications of upcoming earnings reports and economic data releases, particularly the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) which is expected to influence market sentiment further.