EURUSD Technical Analysis Summary

The article discusses the current technical outlook for the EURUSD currency pair as it approaches the release of the US GDP data, scheduled for 8:30 AM ET. The analysis indicates a bearish bias for the EURUSD ahead of this key economic announcement.

Key Economic Data

The advanced GDP data for Q4 is anticipated to show a growth rate of 3.0%. The article provides additional details on various economic indicators:

• GDP Sales Advance: 2.6% (compared to 4.5% in the previous period)
• Deflator: 2.9%
• Core PCE Price Advances: 2.6%
• PCE Advanced: 2.8%

For the third quarter, the following contributions to GDP were noted:

• Personal Consumption: +2.34%
• Goods: +0.64%
• Services: +1.70 pp
• Private Investment: +0.03%
• Government Spending: +0.38%
• Net Trade: +1.66% (with exports up and imports down)

Consumption was identified as the primary growth driver, while net exports contributed positively, and government spending added modestly. Investment growth was flat.

Additional Economic Releases

Alongside the GDP data, other economic indicators to be released include:

• US Personal Income for December: Estimated at 0.3% (same as last month)
• Personal Consumption for December: Estimated at 0.4% (down from 0.5% last month)
• PCE for December: Estimated at 0.3% (up from 0.2% last month)
• PCE Year-over-Year: 2.8% (unchanged from last month)
• Core PCE: Estimated at 0.3% (up from 0.2% last month)
• Core PCE Year-over-Year: 2.8% (unchanged from last month)

Technical Analysis of EURUSD

The EURUSD is trading slightly lower as the US session begins, with market participants positioning themselves ahead of the data release. The technical analysis highlights the following points:

• Sellers pushed the price below a key swing area between 1.1765 and 1.1778, extending a downside move that started when the pair rotated lower from the 1.1860 area.
• The decline reached a low of 1.1741 before a corrective rebound occurred, which stalled at 1.17775.
• Recent selling pressure continued, with the price dipping to 1.1744, just above the previous low, before finding support again.
• The pair has since bounced back into the prior swing zone, focusing on the 1.1765–1.1778 region as the US data approaches.

A move above the resistance area could shift control back to buyers, potentially leading to further upside momentum. Conversely, a break below the recent lows of 1.1741 and 1.1744 would reinforce the bearish outlook, targeting 1.1726, followed by 1.1700 and the 100-day moving average at 1.1687.

Conclusion

The article provides a comprehensive overview of the EURUSD's technical positioning and the economic data that could influence its movement. Traders are advised to monitor the upcoming GDP release closely, as it may significantly impact market sentiment and price action.