Crude Oil Price Analysis: Testing Key Target Area
By Greg Michalowski | March 18, 2026
Market Overview
The price of crude oil has been on the rise, driven by escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. Recent headlines indicate that Israel's military actions targeting energy facilities have prompted warnings from Iranian officials, suggesting potential retaliatory strikes. This geopolitical tension has contributed to a bullish sentiment in the oil market, pushing prices higher.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, the price of crude oil has been fluctuating between $91.45 and $98.21 since March 11. The 100- and 200-hour moving averages have served as critical indicators of market bias. A recent test of the lower range saw buyers enter the market, pushing prices upward.
Despite bearish news at the time, traders utilized technical levels, including the 200-hour moving average and the 50% retracement level, to define risk. Staying above these levels indicated a bullish bias, while a break below would suggest a shift to bearish sentiment.
Recent Price Movements
Following a move above the 200-hour moving average, the bullish bias strengthened, leading to a price increase towards the 100-hour moving average at $95.61. The momentum continued as prices surpassed this moving average, establishing it as a new risk-defining level. Currently, the price is testing the significant swing high target of $98.21, which aligns with a key retracement level from earlier in the year.
Future Outlook
A successful break and hold above the $98.21 level could pave the way for further upward momentum, with potential targets at $100, $101.04, and $102.44. The technical analysis suggests that while news events may trigger price movements, it is the technical indicators that ultimately guide trading decisions, defining direction, targets, and risk management.
Conclusion
In summary, the interplay between geopolitical news and technical analysis is crucial in the oil market. Understanding where to define risk and recognizing the significance of price action can help traders navigate the volatility associated with such events. The current bullish sentiment, supported by technical indicators, suggests that traders should remain vigilant as the market approaches key resistance levels.