Economic Calendar Summary - RBA Hawkish Move
Date: 29 September 2026
Key Takeaways
- The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60%.
- Australian household spending stagnated at 0.0% MoM amidst persistent inflation pressures.
- Upcoming US labor market data and central bank speeches can drive higher market volatility.
- AUD/USD is testing the psychological support level of 0.70 after a sharp sell-off.
RBA Interest Rate Decision
The RBA's decision to increase the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% was anticipated, driven by concerns over elevated inflation risks and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East. This move reflects the central bank's commitment to managing inflationary pressures in the economy.
Household Spending Data
Recent data indicated that Australian household spending remained stagnant at 0.0% month-over-month, falling short of the 0.3% consensus. This stagnation suggests an economic slowdown, exacerbated by ongoing inflationary pressures that are affecting consumer behavior.
Market Reactions and Upcoming Events
The economic calendar for the day is packed with significant events, including speeches from central bank representatives from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, RBA, and Bank of England. Additionally, key US labor market data, such as the JOLTS report and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, are expected to influence market volatility.
Key Releases from the Asian Session
- UK BRC Shop Price Index (YoY): 1.4% vs. 1.5% previously.
- Australian Household Spending (MoM): 0.0% vs. 0.3% consensus and 1.1% previously.
- RBA Interest Rate (Cash Rate): 4.60% (25 bps hike) in line with consensus, supported by a hawkish statement on inflation risks.
Technical Analysis of AUD/USD
The Australian dollar is currently testing a significant psychological level of 0.70 after a recent sell-off. The price action has shown a bearish trend, with the currency trading below key moving averages. The analysis indicates that if the AUD/USD breaks below the 0.7000 level, it could lead to further declines towards the June lows.
Indicators such as the RSI and MACD suggest a continuation of bearish momentum, although the RSI is approaching oversold territory, which may indicate a potential for a corrective bounce in the near term.