Market Analysis Summary: AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and USD/JPY
Date: July 15, 2025
Key Highlights
- AUD/USD is consolidating within an ascending broadening wedge pattern.
- NZD/USD shows bullish price action above the 0.60 level.
- USD/JPY is consolidating between the 142 and 151 levels.
AUD/USD Analysis
The AUD/USD pair has recently dropped to the 0.6550 level as the US dollar strengthened, rallying from its long-term support of 96.50. The market sentiment has turned risk-off due to global trade tensions, particularly following the imposition of a 30% tariff on imports from the EU and Mexico by US President Donald Trump. This protectionist stance has increased demand for safe-haven currencies, thereby pressuring the Australian dollar (AUD).
Despite the recent drop, the broader trend for the US Dollar Index remains negative, with expectations for a potential shift following the upcoming US inflation data. A higher inflation reading could diminish the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which would support USD strength and limit any recovery in AUD/USD. The annual inflation rate in the US rose to 2.7% in June 2025, the highest since February, as businesses began passing on higher import costs due to the new tariffs.
Investors are also awaiting Australian labor market data, which could influence the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) next moves. Weak job data may lead to renewed bets for a rate cut, further pushing the AUD lower.
USD/JPY Analysis
The USD/JPY pair remains within a tight range, with the Japanese Yen (JPY) outperforming most G10 currencies. This strength is supported by solid economic data from Japan, including better-than-expected machine orders and tertiary activity data. Traders are focused on upcoming Japanese CPI figures and the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy meeting on July 31, where a potential increase in the inflation forecast could further support the Yen.
US trade policy continues to create uncertainty in the market. If trade talks deteriorate, demand for safe-haven JPY may increase. Additionally, rising Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields are narrowing yield spreads with US Treasuries, which supports the Yen and tilts the risk for USD/JPY to the downside. The pair is expected to remain within the 142.50–148.00 range if current pressures persist.
Technical Analysis
AUD/USD
The 4-hour chart indicates that AUD/USD is trading within an ascending broadening wedge pattern, consolidating between the 0.6400 and 0.6650 levels. A breakout above 0.6650 could signal a bullish move, while a break below 0.6400 would indicate a bearish trend.
NZD/USD
The NZD/USD pair is showing strong bullish price action within a range of 0.5850 to 0.6100. A break above 0.6100 could initiate a strong upward trend, while a break below 0.5850 may push the pair lower towards 0.5700.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair is currently in a consolidation zone between 140.00 and 151.00. A break below 140.00 would indicate a strong downside trend, while a break above 151.00 would signal a bullish move.
Conclusion
Market participants are closely monitoring trade tensions and economic data releases, which are likely to influence currency movements in the near term. The technical patterns observed in AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and USD/JPY suggest potential volatility and trading opportunities based on upcoming economic indicators.