Weekly Trader's Outlook: Stocks Remain Hamstrung by Higher Oil, Yields and Uncertainty Around Iran
Date: March 13, 2026
Authors: Nathan Peterson, Jim Ferraioli
The Week That Was
The major indices are on track for their third consecutive week of losses, primarily influenced by the ongoing U.S./Iran conflict, which has significantly impacted investor confidence. The week was marked by volatility, as anticipated, due to the uncertainty surrounding Iran and fluctuating oil prices.
On Monday, WTI crude oil futures peaked at approximately $119, while the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) reached a high of 35.3. However, both metrics retreated after President Trump declared that the war was essentially over. Following this, WTI crude oil prices fell to around $77.00, and the VIX decreased to the 22-25 range. The situation escalated again on Tuesday when U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth indicated that the day would see the most intense airstrikes on Iran since the conflict began, leading to a decline in investor optimism regarding the conflict's duration.
Additionally, rising oil prices have contributed to increased Treasury yields, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbing to 4.285% from a low of 3.96% on February 27. The U.S. Dollar also strengthened, reaching its highest level since November.
Earnings Overview
Oracle reported a strong quarter, exceeding expectations and announcing no additional debt for the year, alleviating concerns about heavy AI spending. Overall, the Q4 earnings season has concluded with positive results: 65% of the 497 S&P 500 companies that reported earnings surpassed revenue expectations, and 74% exceeded earnings-per-share (EPS) forecasts. Revenue growth was recorded at +9.23% year-over-year, while EPS growth stood at +13.63%.
Outlook for Next Week
As of the latest update, stocks are trending lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI), S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq Composite ($COMP), and Russell 2000 (RUT) all showing declines. The primary factors influencing stock performance remain oil prices and developments in the Iran conflict, particularly the potential blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.
Next week, several market-moving events are anticipated, including Nvidia's Global Technology Conference, where CEO Jensen Huang is expected to make significant AI-related announcements. Additionally, monetary policy meetings from the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and European Central Bank will take place, with the Fed likely to adopt a "wait and see" approach regarding the economy.
On the earnings front, notable reports are expected from Micron Technology and several other companies throughout the week. The technical setup for the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 indicates potential selling pressure if key support levels are breached.
Economic Data and Market Conditions
This week’s economic data revealed signs of stagflation, with the Q4 U.S. GDP revised down to 0.7% from 1.4%. Durable orders were flat, and new manufacturing orders have declined in recent months. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) prices exceeded expectations, indicating rising inflation concerns.
Job openings increased, and initial jobless claims remained low, suggesting a resilient labor market. However, the overall economic outlook remains cautious, with market expectations for Fed rate cuts shifting downward due to rising oil prices and inflation fears.
Technical Analysis
The Nasdaq Composite is on track for a weekly decline of approximately 1.10%, threatening to close below its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time since May. The S&P 500 is also experiencing a downtrend, hovering just above its 200-day SMA.
Cryptocurrency Market Update
The cryptocurrency market saw Bitcoin and Ether increase by 7% and 10%, respectively. On-chain activity has improved, suggesting a potential bottom, although resistance remains at Bitcoin's 50-day exponential moving average. The market is witnessing a shift in positioning, with increased accumulation among digital natives.
Market Breadth
Market breadth has deteriorated, with the percentage of S&P 500 and Nasdaq stocks trading above their 200-day SMAs declining significantly. This contraction indicates weakening investor sentiment and potential challenges for the broader market.
Conclusion
The outlook remains volatile as geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, and economic data continue to shape market dynamics. Investors should remain vigilant and prepared for potential fluctuations in the coming weeks.