Market Analysis Summary

S&P 500 Update: Seasonality and Elliott Wave Analysis

In a recent analysis, Dr. Arnout Ter Schure discusses the S&P 500 (SPX) index's performance and forecasts based on seasonality and Elliott Wave principles. The article highlights the importance of aligning seasonal patterns with technical analysis to predict market movements accurately.

Key Insights

• The analysis indicates a potential market top around July 16, followed by a low on July 21, and a final peak expected around August 2.
• Previous forecasts suggested a high between June 8 and June 12, with a low between June 16 and June 22, which were confirmed as the SPX peaked on June 11 and hit a low on June 13.
• As of the latest update, the SPX is trading in the $6230s after a low of $5943 on June 23, indicating a successful prediction of a 4-6 week rally.

Future Projections

The article outlines the next important dates to watch, including July 16, 21, and August 2, with expectations for the SPX to reach approximately $6380-6460 before experiencing a pullback. The anticipated gray W-iv correction is expected to last about a week, ideally reaching around $6025 +/- 100.

Following this, a final wave (gray W-v) could peak at approximately $6815 +/- 100, aligning with a longer-term target zone of $6738-7121. This suggests the potential for a significant market top this summer, with bearish control expected to take over after August until at least late October.

Conclusion

Dr. Ter Schure emphasizes the reliability of combining seasonal analysis with Elliott Wave principles, providing valuable insights for traders and investors looking to navigate the complexities of the current market environment.