Market Activity Summary - Last Trading Day of 2025

Date: 31 December 2025

Overview

The final trading day of 2025 is marked by a slowdown in market momentum, particularly in the metals sector. While some global exchanges are closed, trading continues in Japan, parts of Europe, Australia, and New Zealand, with the US markets still active. The day is characterized by a cautious tone as traders prepare for the new year.

Economic Indicators

Unemployment claims in the US are anticipated to be around 219,000. The minutes from the recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting indicated that most Federal Reserve officials expect further rate cuts, although there are internal divisions on this matter. The market's reaction to this news has been muted, with only a slight strengthening of the US dollar, suggesting that traders were largely prepared for this outcome.

Market Indices and Trends

Market indices are experiencing a multi-day correction, which is notable given the typical expectation of a "Santa Claus Rally" during the year's end. However, this seasonal rally has not materialized in 2025, leading to a more cautious approach among traders, with profit-taking observed instead of aggressive risk-taking. The question remains whether the anticipated rally will occur late or be postponed into early 2026.

Currency Market

The currency market is exhibiting a defensive tone. The US dollar and Swiss franc are gaining strength, while some European currencies, including the British pound, are also performing relatively well. Conversely, the New Zealand dollar is under pressure, reflecting a mixed sentiment across different currencies.

Commodity Market Focus

Commodities are at the forefront of market activity, particularly precious metals. Gold and silver are experiencing corrections, with silver notably suffering a sharp drop earlier in the week, followed by a rebound, but is again facing downward pressure. Platinum, despite a significant drop of approximately 11%, remains a standout performer for the year, boasting an impressive 120% increase in 2025. In contrast, oil prices are trading sideways, lacking clear directional movement as traders begin to shift their focus towards new opportunities in 2026.

Conclusion

As the European trading session begins on the last trading day of 2025, the market sentiment is cautious, with traders looking ahead to potential opportunities in the new year. The mixed performance across various sectors indicates a period of adjustment as the year comes to a close.