Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: WTI Slips to $98.75 as Brent Tests $105 — NatGas Breakout Gaining Steam?

Published: May 22, 2026

Key Points

• The US-Iran ceasefire has held for over six weeks, allowing tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to gradually resume.
• WTI crude oil prices slipped to $98.75, breaking below key technical levels.
• Brent crude oil dropped to $105.79, testing lower channel lines with a neutral-to-bearish momentum.
• Natural gas futures remained strong at $3.008, indicating bullish continuation above $2.95.

Market Overview

As of May 22, 2026, oil markets have shown relative stability due to the ongoing ceasefire between the US and Iran. This truce has allowed for a gradual resumption of tanker shipments through the critical Strait of Hormuz, leading to a decrease in geopolitical risks that had previously dominated market sentiment. With the ceasefire intact, traders are now focusing on fundamental factors such as supply, demand, and seasonal trends.

WTI crude oil has seen a decline, currently trading at $98.75 after breaking below the ascending channel floor and the 50-period moving average. Meanwhile, Brent crude is at $105.79, having tested the lower channel line, indicating a neutral-to-bearish market structure.

Natural Gas Market

The natural gas market has remained stable, with prices holding strong at $3.008. This stability is attributed to good storage levels and mild weather conditions across the US and Europe. The market is also supported by increasing long-term LNG demand in Europe and Asia.

Technical Analysis

Natural Gas

Natural gas futures are currently trading at $3.008, having broken above the red moving average at $2.95. The price action shows bullish momentum, with the RSI above 55. The next resistance levels are projected between $3.066 and $3.15. A trade idea suggests buying at $3.008 with a target of $3.15 and a stop loss at $2.98.

WTI Crude Oil

WTI crude oil is trading at $98.75, having printed red engulfing candles that indicate bearish momentum. The price is targeting Fibonacci extension levels between $97.20 and $96.05. A trade idea recommends entering at $98.75 with a target of $97.20 and a stop loss at $99.43.

Brent Crude Oil

Brent crude oil is at $105.79, testing the lower blue channel line. The market structure appears neutral to bearish, with potential selling pressure at $103.88 to $103.10. A trade idea suggests entering a short position at $105.79 with a target of $103.88 and a stop loss at $106.30.

Conclusion

Overall, the oil and natural gas markets are navigating through a period of relative stability due to geopolitical factors easing. However, traders remain cautious, keeping an eye on inventory reports and OPEC+ policy signals, as any disruption in the US-Iran ceasefire could lead to sudden price spikes.