Market Analysis Summary

Macro Update

US equities experienced a rebound, primarily driven by the technology sector, which recovered from a recent selloff influenced by artificial intelligence (AI) concerns. The S&P 500 rose by 0.47%, while the Nasdaq 100 saw a 0.90% increase. The Dow Jones also made a slight gain of 0.04%, marking its second consecutive record close.

Sector Performance

The S&P 500 software services index surged by 2.9%, contributing to a broader tech sector increase of 1.6%. Notable performers included Oracle, which jumped 9.6% following an upgrade, and NVIDIA, which added 2.5%. However, defensive sectors such as consumer staples and healthcare lagged, with significant declines in companies like Waters (-13.9%), Kyndryl (-54.9%), and Hims & Hers (-16%) due to various pressures.

Asian Market Trends

Asian equities continued their upward trend, led by Japan's Nikkei 225, which rose 2.8% to reach a new record following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's election victory. The Japanese yen strengthened, and the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index gained 0.7%.

Currency Movements

The US dollar weakened, with the index hovering near monthly lows. The USD/JPY pair fell by 0.4% as investors anticipated upcoming payroll data and consumer price index (CPI) reports, which may indicate a slowdown in job growth due to increased productivity from AI.

Interest Rates and Policy Outlook

Market expectations are leaning towards the first Federal Reserve rate cut in June, as global equities reach new highs. Attention is also shifting towards potential US climate deregulation, which poses risks for ESG-focused investors.

DAX 40 Analysis

The DAX 40 index has broken through its resistance line, closing above 25,016 after advancing from a low of 24,273 on February 5. The next target is the January 19 high at 25,070, followed by the February 3 peak at 25,098. The immediate bullish outlook remains intact as long as the index stays above the low of 24,715.

Short-term and Medium-term Outlook

Short-term: Bullish while above 24,266, with a confirmation needed above 25,098.

Medium-term: Bullish while above the January 29 low at 24,266.

AUD/USD Analysis

The AUD/USD currency pair has resumed its upward trajectory, revisiting the January peak at $0.7094. A daily close above this level could lead to further gains towards the August 2021 and August 2022 highs at $0.7106 - $0.7137, with the January 2023 peak at $0.7158 also in sight. Support is expected around the February 3 high at $0.7050.

Short-term and Medium-term Outlook

Short-term: Bullish while above $0.6897, targeting the $0.7100 to $0.7150 region.

Medium-term: Bullish while above $0.6897, aiming for the $0.7137 to $0.7158 area.

Copper Price Analysis

Copper prices have been trading sideways with decreasing volatility. The price is expected to continue range trading between last week's extremes of $5.5640 and $6.1153. A breakout above $6.1153 could target the $6.5000 region, while a drop below $5.5640 may lead to a focus on the $5.5000 area.

Short-term and Medium-term Outlook

Short-term: Bullish, targeting the $6.1000 region while above $5.5640.

Medium-term: Bullish; looking towards $6.5000 and potentially $7.0000 while trading above the early February low at $5.5640.