Gold and Silver Price Forecast: ETF Holdings Hit Record

Author: Arslan Ali

Updated: October 21, 2026

Market Overview

Gold is currently trading near $4,120, showing a slight bearish trend below $4,154. The market is closely watching key support and resistance levels, with a significant focus on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and its implications for interest rates.

Key Points

• The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 94% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike by December.
• Despite the tightening monetary policy, gold ETF shares increased by 0.3% last week, necessitating a record 4,278 tonnes of bullion backing.
• Gold's immediate support level is at $4,083, with resistance at $4,154 and a falling trendline near $4,180.
• In India, major mutual funds have paused large inflows into gold ETFs ahead of Diwali, following regulatory guidance from SEBI.
• Kazakhstan plans to reduce its gold reserves from 78% to 75%, indicating a shift in central bank strategies.

Gold Price Analysis

Gold is facing downward pressure due to rising interest rates, but investor demand remains robust. The technical analysis shows that gold is trading below both moving averages, suggesting a bearish sentiment. A close below $4,083 could lead to further declines towards $4,053, while a break above $4,199 would indicate a bullish reversal.

Silver Market Insights

Silver is trading around $57.37, within a tightening triangle pattern. The first support level is at $57.39, with further support at $56.92. Resistance is noted at $57.86 and $58.37. The market is influenced by rising US inflation and expectations of further Fed tightening, but strong physical demand from Asia is providing support.

Conclusion

As the market approaches the FOMC meeting, both gold and silver are navigating through a complex landscape of rising interest rates and fluctuating demand. Investors are advised to monitor key technical levels and market signals closely.