Morning Wrap: Strait of Hormuz Closed? (13.07.2026)

Overview

On July 13, 2026, significant geopolitical tensions escalated as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. This move has raised concerns about potential military responses from the United States and its allies, particularly regarding the safety of US bases in the region.

Key Developments

• IRGC Statement: The IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed until further notice, warning that any US or allied actions in response would face severe retaliation. They reported firing upon a ship that failed to comply with their orders.
• US Response: The US Central Command (CENTCOM) refuted Iran's claims, asserting that the strait remains open and traffic is proceeding without major disruptions. President Trump emphasized the navigability of the route and warned of further attacks on Iran if provocations continue.
• Recent US Military Actions: Prior to this incident, the US had conducted strikes on 80 targets in Iran, marking a significant escalation in military tensions.

Market Reactions

Commodities

In the commodities market, oil prices have surged, with Brent crude reaching approximately $79.5 per barrel and WTI crude at $74.5, reflecting a 4.5% increase. Natural gas prices on the Dutch TTF exchange also rose by 3.6% to over $50 per MWh.

Equities

Asian markets experienced a downturn, with the KOSPI index dropping 8.2%, largely due to a significant decline in SK Hynix shares, which fell over 14% following its debut on the US Nasdaq exchange. Other indices, including the Japanese Nikkei 225 and the Chinese Shanghai SE Composite, also reported losses of 2.2% and 1.6%, respectively. In contrast, the Hang Seng index saw a slight increase of 0.5%.

Macroeconomic Data

The week began quietly from a macroeconomic perspective, with the only notable data being the PMI index for New Zealand's services sector, which came in at 50.6. Investors are looking ahead to upcoming US inflation data and a hearing with Chairman Warsh.

Currency Markets

In currency markets, the US dollar remained strong amid risk aversion, with the EUR/USD pair hovering around 1.14. Commodity currencies like the Norwegian krone and Canadian dollar showed minor weakening, while the Australian dollar, Swedish krona, and yen experienced declines of around 0.4%.

Cryptocurrencies

Key cryptocurrencies faced downward pressure, with Bitcoin falling 1.6% to below $63,000 and Ethereum dropping 1.7% to approximately $1,780.

Conclusion

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has heightened geopolitical tensions, impacting global markets, particularly in commodities and equities. Investors are advised to monitor developments closely as the situation evolves.