US-Iran Talks to Reopen, Steering Oil and Risk Sentiment
Author: Martin Lam
Date: February 26, 2026
Market Highlights
U.S. stocks experienced a positive close on Wednesday, marking a two-week high driven by a resurgence in optimism surrounding artificial intelligence (AI). The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.63%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.81%, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed by 1.26%. Concurrently, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell by 0.2% to 97.69, while the EUR/USD pair saw a 0.3% increase to 1.1809.
Gold prices saw a rebound, attributed to a weakening dollar and safe-haven buying amidst ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, with spot gold rising by 0.4% to $5,170.64 per ounce. In contrast, oil prices closed slightly lower due to a significant rise in U.S. crude inventories, although the market remains cautious ahead of the upcoming U.S.-Iran negotiations. Reports suggest that OPEC+ may consider increasing crude production by 137,000 barrels per day in April, potentially ending a three-month production pause.
Key Outlook
The U.S. and Iran are set to resume negotiations in Geneva on Thursday, with market participants closely monitoring these developments for their potential impact on crude oil prices and overall risk sentiment.
On the economic data front, attention will be on the Eurozone's February Economic Sentiment Indicator, which is expected to improve for the second consecutive month to 99.8, up from 99.4. Additionally, the U.S. will release Initial Jobless Claims, anticipated to rebound to 215,000 from 206,000, indicating ongoing fragility in the labor market.
Key Data and Events Today
- TBD: US and Iran to hold indirect negotiations
- 16:00: ECB President Christine Lagarde delivers a speech
- 18:00: EU Economic Sentiment FEB
- 21:30: US Initial Jobless Claims
Market Analysis
EUR/USD
Resistance: 1.1857/1.1879
Support: 1.1786/1.1764
The EUR/USD pair rose by 0.3% to 1.1806 as traders assessed U.S. tariffs against the ECB’s steady outlook for 2026.
GBP/USD
Resistance: 1.3606/1.3639
Support: 1.3500/1.3466
The GBP/USD pair increased by 0.42% to 1.3600, supported by cooling UK inflation which boosted rate-cut expectations.
USD/JPY
Resistance: 156.35/157.02
Support: 155.54/154.88
The USD/JPY pair hit a two-week low of 156.44 following dovish Bank of Japan appointments.
US Crude Oil Futures (APR)
Resistance: 66.65/67.28
Support: 64.57/63.93
WTI crude oil fell to $65.42 amid a surge in U.S. stocks, although Middle Eastern tensions limited the decline.
Spot Gold
Resistance: 5261/5310
Support: 5092/5027
Gold prices climbed towards $5,175 due to safe-haven demand and geopolitical tensions.
Dow Futures
Resistance: 49716/50020
Support: 49224/48978
The Dow rose 0.63% to a two-week high, driven by renewed optimism in blue-chip stocks.
NASDAQ 100
Resistance: 25698/25903
Support: 25070/24812
The NASDAQ 100 rose 1.26%, propelled by strong earnings from Nvidia and a rally in the semiconductor sector.
Bitcoin
Resistance: 70937/71910
Support: 65752/64527
Bitcoin surged above $68,000 following Nvidia’s earnings and a rebound in Wall Street.
Conclusion
The upcoming U.S.-Iran negotiations are pivotal for market sentiment, particularly in the oil sector, while economic indicators from both the Eurozone and the U.S. will provide further insights into the global economic landscape.