Ethereum Price Forecast: A Potential 50% Crash Ahead

Published: December 9, 2025

Ethereum's native token, Ether (ETH), has seen a recovery of over 20% from its early November low of approximately $2,620, trading above $3,000 as of December 9. However, it remains under significant resistance at around $3,150.

Technical Analysis

The current technical setup indicates the formation of an inverse cup-and-handle pattern, which is typically a bearish signal. A breakdown below the critical support level of $2,900 could confirm a bearish trend, potentially driving the price down to a target of $1,500.

This bearish pattern emerged after ETH's failed attempt to rally towards $4,100 in August, followed by a decline that breached both the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs).

Price Action and Resistance Levels

The handle of the cup-and-handle pattern has formed a rising channel, but ETH is struggling to break above the $3,150 resistance, where the 50-day EMA is currently limiting upward movement. A drop below the lower trendline of the channel, near $2,900, would validate the bearish outlook and the target of $1,500.

Additionally, the measured move aligns with a significant horizontal support area from early 2024, suggesting a potential retest if bearish momentum continues. Until ETH can reclaim the $3,300 to $3,450 range, the risk remains skewed to the downside.

On-Chain Analysis

Recent on-chain data indicates a concerning trend, with a notable inflow of 162,000 ETH to Binance on December 5, the largest since May 2023. This influx suggests that larger holders may be preparing to sell, which could exacerbate downward pressure on the price.

Historically, such significant inflows have preceded periods of increased volatility or sharp declines, especially when prices are trading below major moving averages. If a portion of this inflow translates into sell orders, it could threaten the integrity of the rising channel and lead to a breakdown below $2,900, confirming the bearish target of $1,500.

Conclusion

In summary, while Ethereum has shown some recovery, the technical and on-chain indicators suggest a significant risk of a price crash. Traders should remain cautious and monitor key support levels closely, as a breakdown could lead to substantial losses.