Market Analysis Summary: Oil and Natural Gas Forecasts

Published: March 13, 2026

Author: Vladimir Zernov

Key Highlights

• Natural gas prices are retreating as traders focus on low demand and weather forecasts.
• WTI oil prices are rising due to escalating military actions in the Middle East.
• Brent oil has settled above the $100 mark as traders anticipate prolonged conflict affecting supply routes.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural gas prices have seen a decline as traders reacted to the latest EIA report, which indicated a smaller-than-expected decrease in working gas storage. The report showed a decline of 38 Bcf, while analysts had anticipated a drop of 42 Bcf. Current demand for natural gas remains low, with weather forecasts suggesting continued low demand over the weekend, potentially increasing on Monday.

Technically, natural gas has struggled to maintain levels above the resistance of $3.25 - $3.30 and has pulled back towards $3.15. If it settles below $3.15, it may head towards the next support level in the $3.00 - $3.05 range.

WTI Oil Market Dynamics

WTI oil prices have increased as the U.S. intensifies military strikes against Iran, with reports of multiple airstrikes in Tehran. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains critical, with Iran allowing two LNG carriers from India to pass while keeping the route closed for other vessels. The U.S. has also deployed a Marine expeditionary unit to the region, indicating a potential escalation in military operations.

Market sentiment is preparing for a prolonged conflict, with oil prices likely to rise further if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Currently, WTI oil is attempting to settle above the resistance level of $97.00 - $97.50, with the next target being $103.50 - $104.00.

Brent Oil Price Movements

Brent oil has surpassed the $100 mark as traders speculate on the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the IEA's decision to release oil from strategic reserves, this has not impacted prices significantly, as traders are actively seeking available oil supplies globally. Technically, Brent oil is trying to settle above the $103.00 - $104.00 resistance level, with potential to reach $108.00 - $109.00 if successful.

Although the RSI indicates that Brent oil is overbought, the geopolitical situation takes precedence over technical indicators, keeping prices elevated.

Conclusion

The current market dynamics for natural gas and oil are heavily influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict involving Iran. Traders are closely monitoring these developments, which are likely to have significant implications for pricing and supply in the coming weeks.