FX Futures Positioning: US Dollar, EUR, GBP, JPY | COT Report
By Matt Simpson, Market Analyst
Date: 06/07/2026
Overview
The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates a significant increase in speculative interest in the US dollar, with net-long positions reaching a 17-month high. Concurrently, bearish sentiment has intensified in the euro, yen, and commodity currencies, suggesting a shift in market dynamics.
Key Positioning Insights
- US Dollar: Net-long exposure rose by $4.9 billion to $33.5 billion.
- EUR/USD: Minor adjustments with net-longs trimmed by 1.1k contracts; gross shorts reached an 18-month high.
- GBP/USD: Asset managers' net-short exposure hit a record -156.3k contracts.
- USD/JPY: Net-short yen exposure increased to a near two-year high of 155k contracts.
- USD/CHF: Net-short positions remained at 80.2k contracts with minor changes.
- USD/CAD: Net-short exposure rose to a 30-week high of 150.1k contracts.
- AUD/USD: Net-short exposure increased to a 24-week high of 18.3k contracts.
- NZD/USD: Net-short exposure reached a record high of 63.3k contracts.
Market Sentiment Analysis
Traders have added $30 billion in bullish exposure to the US dollar over the past six weeks, marking a significant sentiment shift. However, there are signs that some traders are beginning to question the sustainability of this bullish trend, as evidenced by a slight reduction in long contracts.
Currency-Specific Insights
EUR/USD
Large speculators are nearing a net-short position for the first time in 12 weeks, with gross shorts at an 18-month high. This could indicate a potential sentiment extreme.
USD/JPY
Volatility has increased following a break above 162, with speculation of intervention from Japan's Ministry of Finance. The market is currently weighing the potential for a breakout against intervention risks.
GBP/USD
There is a divergence in sentiment, with record net-short exposure among asset managers, while large speculators have slightly reduced their shorts. This could hint at a potential reversal in the GBP/USD trend.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)
Bearish positioning is prevalent across commodity currencies, with the Australian and New Zealand dollars showing significant net-short positions. The Canadian dollar, however, is experiencing pressure from US dollar strength.
Conclusion
The COT report highlights a complex landscape in FX futures positioning, with the US dollar gaining strength while other major currencies face increasing bearish sentiment. Traders should remain vigilant as market dynamics evolve, particularly in light of potential sentiment extremes and intervention risks.