Market Analysis Summary - February 25, 2026

Overview

This article provides a detailed analysis of the current trends in the natural gas and oil markets, particularly focusing on WTI and Brent crude oil, as well as natural gas prices. The analysis is influenced by recent inventory reports and geopolitical developments, particularly the upcoming U.S.-Iran nuclear deal negotiations.

Natural Gas Market

Natural gas prices are attempting to recover after a significant pullback, with traders looking to buy the dip. The upcoming EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage report is anticipated, with expectations of a decrease in working gas storage by 36 Bcf, following a previous decline of 144 Bcf. If natural gas prices can settle above $3.90, they may target resistance levels between $3.00 and $3.05. Conversely, support is identified in the $2.80 to $2.85 range, with a potential drop to $2.55 to $2.60 if this support fails.

WTI Oil Market

WTI crude oil prices are experiencing a decline, primarily due to a significant increase in crude inventories, which rose by 16 million barrels, far exceeding the analyst consensus of 1.8 million barrels. Current inventories are approximately 3% below the five-year average for this time of year. Gasoline inventories saw a slight decrease of 1 million barrels, while distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.3 million barrels. Domestic oil production has stabilized around 13.7 million bpd, with a recent slight decrease noted. WTI oil is currently testing the $65.00 level; a successful breach could lead to a drop towards $62.00.

Brent Oil Market

Brent crude oil is also facing downward pressure as traders await the outcome of U.S.-Iran negotiations set to take place in Geneva. The Iranian Foreign Minister indicated that a deal with the U.S. is within reach, while U.S. President Trump has expressed strong opposition to Iran's nuclear ambitions. Despite bearish fundamentals, traders are cautious about increasing short positions due to geopolitical risks. Brent oil is attempting to settle below the $71.00 level, with support identified in the $69.50 to $70.00 range.

Conclusion

The article highlights the volatility in the oil and natural gas markets, driven by inventory reports and geopolitical tensions. Traders are advised to remain vigilant as the situation develops, particularly with the upcoming U.S.-Iran talks that could significantly impact market dynamics.