Market Analysis Summary: US-Iran Talks and UK Political Developments
Author: Martin Lam
Date: June 22, 2026
Key Takeaways
- The US and Iran have initiated peace talks in Switzerland, prompted by President Trump's warnings of renewed hostilities due to Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz amidst tensions between Israel and Lebanon.
- This week is critical for inflation and growth concerns, with the US PCE Price Index and global PMI figures influencing policy expectations. Notable highlights include Eurozone Consumer Confidence (expected to improve but remain negative) and Canada CPI (forecasted at 3.0%, up from 2.8%).
Global Market Review (June 22, 2026)
US markets were closed on Friday. The US Dollar increased by 1%, reaching a 13-month high. Spot gold decreased by 1.2% to $4,160, while WTI crude oil saw a slight rebound amid developments in US-Iran relations.
Key Events Today
June 22 (GMT+8)
- 09:15 - CN Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y JUN
- 20:30 - CA CPI MoM MAY
- 22:00 - EU Consumer Confidence Flash JUN
June 23 (GMT+8)
- NYMEX Crude Oil July Futures Expire
- 07:00 - AU Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUN
- 08:30 - JP Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUN
- 15:30 - EU GERMANY Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUN
- 16:00 - EU Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUN
- 16:30 - GB Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUN
- 21:45 - US Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash
- 22:00 - US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index JUN
Market Analysis
EUR/USD
Resistance: 1.1500 / 1.1518 | Support: 1.1452 / 1.1438
The EUR/USD pair fell to 1.1460 as market anxieties over US-Iran peace talks increased, despite comments from ECB officials suggesting further rate hikes. The pair is under pressure with key support levels at 1.1452 and 1.1438.
GBP/USD
Resistance: 1.3288 / 1.3306 | Support: 1.3191 / 1.3173
The GBP/USD pair declined this morning, reversing gains from stronger UK retail sales data. Political uncertainty surrounding Prime Minister Keir Starmer's potential resignation is influencing market sentiment.
USD/JPY
Resistance: 161.77 / 161.89 | Support: 161.24 / 161.12
The USD/JPY pair saw renewed support as it approached the 161.50 level, driven by safe-haven demand amid rising uncertainty over US-Iran relations.
Crude Oil Futures
Resistance: 78.25 / 79.39 | Support: 74.40 / 73.49
Crude oil prices increased following Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to renewed hostilities. However, the rebound lacks momentum, and volatility is expected.
Spot Gold
Resistance: 4298 / 4342 | Support: 4161 / 4118
Spot gold rebounded after three consecutive weekly declines, but the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance continues to pressure precious metals.
Dow Jones Futures
Resistance: 52076 / 52338 | Support: 51202 / 50995
The Dow Jones fluctuated between gains and losses, with market participants focusing on the US-Iran situation and rising expectations of more Fed rate hikes.
NASDAQ 100
Resistance: 30756 / 31053 | Support: 29777 / 29475
The Nasdaq is expected to experience volatility due to US-Iran talks, with any deterioration in negotiations likely to impact the index negatively.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Resistance: 65330 / 66308 | Support: 61253 / 60307
Bitcoin rose above $64,000 as investors monitored US-Iran negotiations and bullish trends in crypto derivatives.
Conclusion
The market is currently influenced by geopolitical tensions, particularly the US-Iran talks, and domestic political developments in the UK. Investors are advised to remain cautious and monitor these evolving situations closely.