Market Summary - February 9, 2026

Natural Gas Price Decline

Natural gas prices have experienced a significant decline, dropping over 6% at the beginning of the week. From a peak last Friday, prices have decreased by as much as 12%, currently testing the $3.2 USD/MMBtu level. If this support level is breached, prices could fall to their lowest since mid-January, potentially reaching a demand zone between $2.8 and $3.0 USD/MMBtu.

Primary Drivers of the Decline

• Shifting Weather Forecasts: After an Arctic blast in January, forecasts now indicate a warming trend in key US regions, reducing gas consumption for heating.
• Inventory Dynamics: A recent storage report showed a significant draw of 360 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ending January 30, but upcoming forecasts suggest a decrease in heating needs for February.
• Stockpiles: Current inventories are above levels from a year ago and slightly below the five-year average.
• Softer Industrial Demand: Seasonal reductions in activity in the chemical and energy sectors, along with high storage efficiency, are contributing to the price decline.

Inventory and Seasonality

Inventories are close to the five-year average, and forecasts indicate that gas consumption will be significantly lower at the start of February, leading to smaller weekly drawdowns in the future.

Heating Degree Days (HDD)

The forecast for heating degree days for February 22 is approaching the five-year average. However, historical data suggests a notable reduction in heating needs during the latter half of February.

Technical Outlook

With prices having fallen sharply, if the support at $3.2 USD is broken, the next demand zone is anticipated to be between $2.8 and $3.0 USD/MMBtu.

Other Market Updates

In other news, Takaichi’s party has won elections in Japan, raising concerns about potential debt issues. Additionally, Bitcoin has fallen below $70,000, prompting speculation about further declines in the cryptocurrency market.