Summary of Tariff Extensions and Their Impact on Gold Price

In the article by Przemysław Radomski, the author discusses the implications of recent tariff extensions on the gold market and the U.S. dollar index. The analysis begins with the observation that gold and mining stocks have confirmed their breakdowns, while the USD Index appears to have reached a bottom in line with its monthly turning point.

Key Points

• The article highlights the extension of tariff deadlines, initially set by President Trump for July 9, which have now been pushed to August 1. This extension is seen as a strategic move to facilitate negotiations with trading partners, including the UK, Vietnam, and China.
• Radomski notes that the market has been bracing for potential shocks from these tariffs, but the delay in implementation may lead to a quick resolution of trade tensions, which could negatively impact gold prices.
• Technical analysis indicates that gold has reached a major top, with overbought signals from MACD and PMO indicators suggesting a significant decline ahead. The author predicts a bearish outlook for gold prices in July 2025.
• The emotional support for gold is fading as the market begins to look past the chaos of trade negotiations towards a more stable dollar, which is expected to strengthen as uncertainties diminish.
• Radomski emphasizes the importance of volume analysis in understanding market movements. He points out that recent rallies in mining stocks occurred on the second-lowest volume in a decade, indicating a lack of enthusiasm and conviction among investors.

Conclusion

The article concludes that as tariff negotiations progress towards resolution, the fundamental strength of the dollar is likely to reassert itself, leading to a decline in gold prices. The author encourages readers to stay informed and consider the implications of these developments on their investment strategies.

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