Market Analysis Summary - February 9, 2026
FTSE 100 Near Record Highs
The FTSE 100 index is trading close to its record high, with a target around the 10,500 region. The index remains above a recent low of 10,211, indicating a bullish short-term outlook as long as it stays above the 6 February low. Support levels are identified between the highs of 10,373 and 10,365, with further support at 10,278 and 10,256.
Macro Update
Asian Markets Surge
Asian equities have rebounded significantly, led by Japan's Nikkei 225, which rose over 4% following a decisive election result that paves the way for debt-funded fiscal stimulus and reflationary policies.
US Semiconductor Stocks Boost Sentiment
A late rebound in US semiconductor stocks, including NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom, which saw gains of 7-8%, has improved global market sentiment, easing concerns regarding artificial intelligence (AI) spending.
Japanese Bonds Reflect Stimulus Risks
In Japan, expectations of increased government borrowing have pushed two-year bond yields to approximately 1.3%, the highest since the mid-1990s, highlighting the balance between growth optimism and fiscal sustainability.
US Rate Cut Expectations
Market confidence is growing regarding a potential US rate cut by June, with upcoming economic data on jobs, inflation, and retail sales expected to support this easing without indicating a sharp economic slowdown.
Commodity Market Volatility
Commodity prices remain volatile, with silver stabilizing after significant fluctuations, currently up over 4%. In contrast, oil prices have slipped around 1% as traders await developments in US-Iran negotiations.
Investment Rotation Trends
There is a noticeable shift among investors moving away from high-multiple US tech stocks and heavy AI spenders towards global markets and beneficiaries of AI, indicating a decline in US exceptionalism and a renewed interest in Asian and European markets.
Currency Analysis
USD/JPY Performance
The USD/JPY currency pair has retraced from an intraday high of ¥157.72, following Japan's Prime Minister Takaichi's election victory. Resistance is noted around ¥157.72 - ¥157.76, with potential retracement towards ¥156.12 and ¥155.78 if this resistance holds. The short-term outlook remains bullish above ¥155.70.
Silver Price Recovery
The silver price has bounced back from a low of $64.0626, with the next target at last week's high of $92.2049. A rise above this level could bring the psychological $100 mark into play. The short-term outlook is bullish while above the recent low.
Conclusion
The current market dynamics indicate a bullish sentiment in the FTSE 100 and a recovery in commodities like silver, alongside a positive outlook for Asian equities. Investors are advised to monitor key support and resistance levels as well as upcoming economic data that could influence market movements.