Morning Wrap: USA Halts Strikes – Oil Down, Stocks Up (03.08.2026)
Market Overview
The week has been eventful, marked by significant geopolitical developments and market movements. Key highlights include:
- A migration crisis in Ceuta, Spain.
- The collapse of the Situational Awareness investment fund.
- A historic rise in the Korean KOSPI index.
- Major intervention in the Japanese yen.
- A decline in oil prices following the cancellation of military action against Iran by Donald Trump.
Geopolitical Developments
The ongoing US-Iran conflict continues to influence oil and gas prices. Recently, Trump announced plans for a significant military strike, which was later called off due to diplomatic efforts suggesting a potential agreement was close. Additionally, negotiations between Iran and Oman regarding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are progressing.
Commodities
OPEC+ has decided to increase oil production limits, contributing to a decline in oil prices. Currently, Brent crude is priced at approximately $83 per barrel, down about 5% from the previous week, while WTI is below $80 per barrel. Natural gas prices on the Dutch TTF exchange are also decreasing, with stable NATGAS quotes around $2.76 per MMBtu.
Equities
Lower energy prices are positively impacting stock markets. Futures indicate a rise of 0.8% for the Nasdaq 100 and 0.6% for the S&P 500. European indices are also expected to open higher, with the German DAX projected to rise by about 1%. However, Asian markets are less optimistic, with the Japanese Nikkei 225 down 1.1% and the Chinese Shanghai SE down 0.8%. The KOSPI, despite a remarkable 15% rise on Friday, is currently down 5% due to losses in major companies like Samsung and SK Hynix.
Precious Metals
US 10-year bond yields remain high at 4.69%, exerting pressure on precious metal prices. Gold is priced at approximately $4,070 per troy ounce, while silver is around $58.2.
Macroeconomic Data and Monetary Policy
Following a week of central bank meetings, there will be a pause in monetary policy changes, with only the Czech CNB meeting this week. The focus will shift to the upcoming NFP report, with weaker data potentially affecting the Fed's interest rate projections. PMI revisions are also expected, though they are unlikely to cause significant volatility.
Currency Markets
The US dollar is experiencing a sell-off post-Federal Reserve meeting, with the EUR/USD pair above 1.15. The yen is in focus due to a coordinated intervention by the US and Japan, leading to a significant drop in the USDJPY pair, which fell over 4% to around 156.