Market Wrap: Geopolitical Rebalancing; Markets Wary of the Outcome of the 5-Day “Standoff”

Date: March 24, 2026

Market Overview

European markets are experiencing significant volatility, primarily driven by uncertainty surrounding a five-day ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran regarding energy target attacks. Despite the ceasefire, Iran has denied any discussions took place, and Israel continues its military actions, contributing to market skepticism.

Key Market Indicators

• Oil Prices: Oil prices have increased by over 1%, yet remain below $98 per barrel.
• USD Performance: The USD index is up 0.23%, with Southern Hemisphere currencies, such as AUD and NZD, losing value against the USD.
• Gold: Gold is underperforming compared to oil and the USD, indicating ongoing market risks.

Stock Market Performance

The stock exchanges are showing a bearish trend, with the German DAX 40 down 0.8% and the French CAC 40 down 0.7%. The Polish W20 index is the worst performer, declining by approximately 1.1%.

Company Highlights

SAP SE

SAP shares have fallen by 4% to €147.66, marking a 26-month low and a total decline of 29% year-to-date. Analyst Toby Ogg from JPMorgan downgraded the stock from “Overweight” to “Neutral,” citing a slowdown in the Current Cloud Backlog growth and increased earnings volatility due to business model changes. Price targets were also reduced by Kepler Cheuvreux and Jefferies, although both maintained a "Buy" rating, indicating long-term confidence.

Bayer AG

Bayer shares dropped nearly 3% following news that Inclusive Capital Partners is considering selling a block of shares, interpreted by the market as a sign of diminished growth potential for the company.

PUIG Brands SA

In contrast, shares of Puig surged by 16% after Estée Lauder announced they are in talks regarding a potential acquisition of the Spanish beauty group.

Conclusion

The current market environment is characterized by geopolitical tensions and mixed corporate earnings outlooks, leading to cautious trading behavior among investors. The volatility in oil, currency, and stock markets reflects the broader uncertainties affecting global economic conditions.