Market Analysis Summary: Gold Slips Below $5,200/Oz as Iran War Lifts Oil, Dollar and Stocks Dip
Author: Martin Lam
Date: March 13, 2026
Overview
Spot gold prices have fallen below $5,200 an ounce, trading at $5,154.46/oz, influenced by a stronger US dollar and rising oil prices due to escalating tensions in the US-Israel-Iran conflict. Gold futures also saw a decline, dropping 0.4% to $5,159.40/oz after briefly surpassing the $5,200 mark overnight.
Market Snapshot
Oil prices surged sharply following reports of attacks on international tankers near Iraq, with Brent crude futures rising nearly 8% to approach $100 per barrel. Concurrently, the US dollar index strengthened, reaching multi-week highs above 104, driven by safe-haven demand and inflation concerns. US stock markets closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.61% and the S&P 500 off 0.08%, reflecting a decline in risk appetite.
Other precious metals also experienced declines, with silver dipping 0.2% to $85.56/oz and platinum losing 0.1% to $2,167/oz. US 10-year Treasury yields increased to 4.24%, reflecting rising inflation expectations linked to higher energy costs.
Conflict Escalation
The ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict has heightened market volatility, with Iran asserting that ships must obtain permission to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The US has responded by deploying bombers, while Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have targeted sites in Tehran. Despite President Trump's claims that the conflict is nearing resolution, recent attacks indicate a lack of de-escalation. The strikes on oil tankers have raised concerns about supply disruptions, pushing oil prices higher even as the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced a release of 400 million barrels from reserves.
Inflation Pressures Build
Recent US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data met expectations but raised concerns about energy-driven price increases, dampening hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts and negatively impacting non-yielding gold. The rise in oil prices poses a risk of long-term inflation, leading to a more hawkish outlook from central banks, which could limit gold's price gains. Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank, noted that high oil prices could embed inflationary pressures, sidelining gold until geopolitical tensions ease.
Risk Flows Shift
Equity markets are under pressure due to growth concerns stemming from the Iran conflict, with Dow futures indicating a lower opening in extended trading. Investors are favoring the dollar as a safe haven over gold, leading to outflows from equities. Commodity strategist Ole Hansen from Saxo Bank remarked that traders are shifting into cash and crude oil, as the dollar currently outshines gold.
Macro Implications
The ongoing conflict clouds the global growth outlook, with potential oil price spikes adding 1-2 percentage points to headline inflation if the situation persists. Central banks may face tighter policy paths, limiting the scope for rate cuts and supporting higher yields. The dollar has strengthened against the euro and yen, while emerging market currencies have weakened amid risk-off sentiment.
Key Monitors Ahead
Market participants are closely watching upcoming US CPI revisions, IEA updates on oil reserves, and shipping signals from the Strait of Hormuz for indications of further escalation. Comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding energy inflation will also be critical in assessing the risks of a policy shift.
About the Author
Martin Lam is the Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific at ATFX, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.