Market Summary - February 20, 2026
Oil Prices and Geopolitical Tensions
On February 20, 2026, oil prices reached six-month highs, with Brent crude rising by 0.5% to $72 per barrel. This increase was influenced by escalating tensions surrounding Iran, particularly after former President Donald Trump stated that Iran has a maximum of 15 days to negotiate a nuclear deal. Additionally, the U.S. has deployed more Marine forces to the Middle East, further heightening geopolitical risks. As a result, oil has seen a weekly gain exceeding 6%.
Investor Focus on Economic Data
Investors are keenly awaiting U.S. economic data releases scheduled for Friday, which will include information on economic activity and PCE inflation. The anticipation has grown following the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting, which highlighted ongoing concerns among policymakers regarding inflationary pressures. Furthermore, the U.S. Supreme Court is expected to announce decisions related to tariff measures, which could impact global markets.
Asian and Global Equity Markets
In Asian markets, caution was evident as the MSCI Asia index fell by 0.4%, mirroring declines seen on Wall Street. However, U.S. and European equity-index futures showed signs of stabilization, rising approximately 0.3%. Notably, South Korea's equity market stood out, gaining 2% and solidifying its status as the best-performing stock market globally for the year to date. This performance is largely attributed to major players like Samsung and SK Hynix, which are benefiting from a tightening memory-chip market.
U.S. Dollar Performance
The U.S. dollar is on track for its best weekly performance in four months, driven by a reduction in expectations for future Federal Reserve rate cuts. The demand for safe-haven assets has bolstered the dollar amidst heightened geopolitical risks, while rising oil prices have raised concerns about a potential resurgence in inflation and a prolonged pause in Fed rate adjustments.
Additional News
In a surprising announcement, Donald Trump directed relevant government departments to begin the process of identifying and releasing files related to alien life, unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP), and UFOs.
Oil Market Analysis
Oil prices have shown resilience, bouncing back from support levels in the $58–60 per barrel range and are now approximately 20% higher than those lows. The market has previously reacted to similar price movements, breaking above the EMA200 exponential moving average in December 2024 and June 2025, although those rallies eventually lost momentum as sellers regained control.
Conclusion
The current market landscape is characterized by rising oil prices amid geopolitical tensions, cautious investor sentiment in equity markets, and a strengthening U.S. dollar. Upcoming economic data releases will be crucial in shaping market expectations and investor strategies.