Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Fed Looms Will Gold Rebound Above $4,150?

Key Points

• The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is a critical catalyst as markets anticipate a high probability of a September rate hike.
• Strong inflows into gold ETFs and persistent central bank buying bolster gold's long-term investment outlook.
• Gold needs to reclaim the $4,150 trendline resistance to confirm a bullish reversal towards $4,200.
• Silver is attempting to recover above its moving averages, but must clear $59.94 to strengthen its momentum.

Market Overview

Gold and silver prices are currently influenced by central bank policies, geopolitical risks, and strong demand from the official sector. The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained its deposit rate at 2.25%, with President Christine Lagarde indicating a potential for further rate hikes if energy-related inflation persists.

Attention is now on the US Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting, where most forecasts suggest that interest rates will remain unchanged. However, futures markets indicate an 81% probability of a rate hike in September, which could make gold, a non-yielding asset, less attractive.

Gold Demand Insights

Private demand for gold in Europe reached approximately 2,200 tonnes in 2025, nearly double that of 2024. Gold-backed ETFs experienced record inflows of $89 billion in 2025, acquiring about 800 tonnes of gold. Although central bank demand has slowed, it remains elevated compared to pre-2022 levels.

Technical Analysis

Gold Analysis

Gold prices have rebounded from the $4,030 support level but are still facing resistance from a trendline. Currently, gold is around $4,050, below the 50-EMA ($4,067) and 100-EMA ($4,063), indicating a cautious short-term bias. Key resistance levels are at $4,067 and $4,150, with support at $4,030, $3,998, and $3,957.

The RSI has recovered to 42.0, suggesting waning selling momentum, but buyers remain hesitant. A decisive close above $4,150 is necessary to invalidate the bearish structure.

Silver Analysis

Silver prices have bounced back from the $57.10 support level and are currently near $58.23. The price is above the 50-EMA ($58.22), but the broader trend remains under trendline resistance. Key resistance levels for silver are at $58.56 and $59.94, with support at $57.10, $56.12, and $54.69.

The RSI for silver has rebounded to near 49, indicating reduced selling momentum, but buyers still lack confidence. A sustained move above $58.56 is needed to challenge the $59.94 level.