Market Analysis Summary: US-Iran Peace Progress Eases Fears
Author: Martin Lam
Date: June 23, 2026
Key Takeaways
- High-level talks between the US and Iran have shown promise, with the US announcing a 60-day sanctions waiver for Iran following initial discussions under a preliminary peace agreement. This development has positively impacted market sentiment.
- Market focus is on the preliminary June manufacturing and services PMI data from the Eurozone, UK, and US. The Eurozone manufacturing PMI is expected to indicate modest expansion, while the US manufacturing PMI is projected to decrease from 55.1 to 54.8.
Global Market Review (June 23, 2026)
Wall Street closed mixed on Monday, with the Dow Jones up by 0.29%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 0.37% and 1.3%, respectively. Treasury yields and the Dollar Index saw slight increases. Gold prices rebounded due to improved sentiment from US-Iran talks, whereas WTI crude oil prices dropped by 2% after initial gains.
Key Events Today
- 07:00 AU Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUN
- 08:30 JP Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUN
- 15:30 EU GERMANY Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUN
- 16:00 EU Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUN
- 16:30 GB Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUN
- 21:45 US Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash
- 22:00 US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index JUN
Market Analysis
EUR/USD
Resistance: 1.1452 / 1.1471
Support: 1.1409 / 1.1395
The strength of the US dollar, driven by optimism surrounding US-Iran talks, has pressured the EUR/USD pair. ECB President Lagarde indicated that Eurozone inflation is manageable, leading to expectations of further rate hikes this year.
GBP/USD
Resistance: 1.3288 / 1.3306
Support: 1.3191 / 1.3174
The GBP/USD pair rose to 1.3270 following UK PM Starmer's resignation, while developments in US-Iran relations have mitigated the impact of political changes. Market focus is now on Burnham's potential premiership and his policy direction.
USD/JPY
Resistance: 161.89 / 162.05
Support: 161.25 / 161.12
The USD/JPY pair remains above 161, with traders vigilant for possible Japanese government intervention as the finance minister expressed readiness to address volatility.
US Crude Oil Futures (AUG)
Resistance: 76.20 / 77.73
Support: 71.01 / 69.79
US-Iran talks have alleviated concerns over crude supply, leading to a decline in WTI prices to just above $74.
Spot Gold (XAU/USD)
Resistance: 4245 / 4298
Support: 4160 / 4118
Gold prices faced resistance at the 10-day moving average, with traders reassessing the implications of US-Iran talks on inflation expectations.
Dow Jones Futures
Resistance: 52076 / 52338
Support: 51404 / 51202
The Dow Jones index showed slight recovery, remaining within its recent record-high range, as markets reacted positively to US-Iran discussions.
NASDAQ 100
Resistance: 30506 / 30756
Support: 29922 / 29622
Large-cap tech stocks faced declines, particularly SpaceX shares, which dropped over 16%. The Nasdaq index remains within a high range but needs to maintain above the 30,000 psychological level.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Resistance: 65327 / 66305
Support: 63175 / 62213
Bitcoin is trading above $64,000, buoyed by the progress in US-Iran peace talks, although it has faced resistance above $65,500.
Conclusion
The market is currently influenced by geopolitical developments, particularly the US-Iran peace talks, which have eased some fears and improved sentiment across various asset classes. Traders are advised to monitor key economic indicators and geopolitical events closely.