Market Weekly Outlook - Inflation Storm Ahead as Earnings Season Gets Underway

Author: Zain Vawda

Date: July 11, 2025

Week in Review: Tariff Uncertainty Drags On

The recent tariff deadline of July 9 has left market participants with numerous questions as trade negotiations with the US continue. Despite the lack of significant US economic data, tariffs and trade deals have dominated market focus. President Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, increasing from 25%, and hinted at raising tariffs on other countries as well.

The Fear and Greed index remains in the greed territory, indicating a level of optimism despite ongoing uncertainties.

Market Reactions

Market reactions to the new tariffs have been relatively calm compared to previous sharp declines. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are expected to see slight drops, while the Dow is set to end its three-week winning streak. Notably, Nvidia reached a $4 trillion valuation, marking a historic milestone.

Gold prices have surged, reflecting market concerns over tariff uncertainties, while Bitcoin has reached new all-time highs, driven by institutional investment.

Earnings Season Insights

As earnings season approaches, investors are keen to understand the impact of tariffs on US businesses. The uncertainty surrounding trade issues may weigh on equities, but positive corporate updates could lead to market advances.

Upcoming Economic Data

The upcoming week will feature significant economic data releases, including inflation reports from the US and UK, GDP data from China, and manufacturing data from Japan. Key expectations include:

• China's trade data is anticipated to show slight growth.
• US inflation is expected to remain steady, but the impact of tariffs may not be fully realized until later reports.
• UK job numbers and service inflation data will be closely monitored, with potential implications for Bank of England rate cuts.

Chart of the Week - Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold has shown resilience, bouncing back from early declines and benefiting from the recent tariff announcements. The technical outlook suggests potential for further gains, depending on trade developments.

Conclusion

The upcoming week is poised to be critical for markets, with inflation data and earnings reports likely to shape investor sentiment amidst ongoing tariff uncertainties.

For more insights, follow Zain on Twitter/X @zvawda.