Market Analysis Summary - February 20, 2026

Overview

As geopolitical tensions rise, particularly concerning Iran's nuclear program, global markets are experiencing significant volatility. The U.S. has reportedly set a deadline for negotiations, while military presence in the region has increased, leading to concerns about potential supply disruptions in oil markets.

Key Markets to Watch

1. Oil (WTI)

WTI crude oil prices are reflecting a growing geopolitical risk premium. With Iran producing approximately 3-4 million barrels per day and a significant portion of global oil trade passing through the Strait of Hormuz, any military action could disrupt supply chains. The market currently anticipates a limited military operation aimed at pushing Iran back to negotiations, which could maintain a moderate risk premium on oil prices. However, if tensions escalate, particularly affecting key shipping routes, prices could rise sharply.

2. Nasdaq-100 (US100)

The Nasdaq-100 index is facing pressures from both geopolitical risks and uncertain monetary policy. The rising oil prices complicate the inflation outlook, potentially leading the Federal Reserve to maintain a "higher for longer" interest rate policy. Upcoming speeches from FOMC members and key inflation data releases are expected to increase volatility in index futures. If the Fed adopts a cautious stance, the US100 may experience downward pressure, especially after a recent period of consolidation.

3. Gold

Gold is reaffirming its status as a safe-haven asset, with prices approaching the $5,000 mark. Following a recent sell-off, the market appears to be in a holding pattern, awaiting new catalysts. Should Middle Eastern tensions escalate, capital may flow back into gold. Conversely, any diplomatic progress or limited military actions without broader implications could reduce demand for gold.