S&P 500 Forecast: Bullish Outlook with Elliott Wave Analysis

In a recent analysis by Dr. Arnout Ter Schure, the S&P 500 (SPX) index is projected to continue its bullish trend, with the Elliott Wave (EW) principle indicating that the index is currently in a third wave. The ideal target for this wave is approximately 7250, followed by a potential pullback to around 7100, and a subsequent rally that could reach between 7345 and 7490.

Current Market Context

As of the latest update, the SPX has risen nearly 2% since the previous forecast, aligning with the anticipated subdividing pattern. The analysis maintains the target zone of 7345-7490, suggesting a strong bullish sentiment in the market.

Internal Targets of the Impulse Move

The forecast outlines specific internal targets contingent on the index remaining above certain warning levels. If the SPX breaks below these levels, the likelihood of an end to the uptrend increases significantly. The expected trajectory includes a rise to approximately 7100 for the blue W-iii, a drop to around 7015 for the blue W-iv, and a rally to about 7160 for the orange W-3. The analysis also notes the possibility of an overlapping ending diagonal for the green W-5, which could lead to a rally towards the lower end of the target zone (~7345).

Future Expectations

Once the green W-5 is completed, ideally around April 18-28, 2026, the analysis anticipates a bear market similar to that of 2022 before a larger multi-year rally to new all-time highs (ATHs) can commence. The warning levels for the bullish trend are set at 6917, 6878, 6844, 6824, and 6720, which will be adjusted upwards as the index continues to rise.

Conclusion

Overall, the analysis presents a cautiously optimistic outlook for the S&P 500, emphasizing the importance of monitoring key price levels to gauge the sustainability of the current bullish trend. Investors are advised to stay informed and consider these projections in their trading strategies.