Morning Wrap: US Halt to Attacks Balanced by Semiconductor Sector Declines (28.07.2026)
Geopolitical Developments
The start of the week was marked by significant geopolitical news, particularly the suspension of hostilities between the US and Iran. The US halted airstrikes, a decision influenced by warnings from American advisors about diminishing targets and weapon stockpiles. This pause was confirmed by US Ambassador to the UN, Mike Waltz, who stated it was intended to "give diplomacy some space."
President Trump indicated that negotiations were ongoing, expressing optimism about the talks, while also warning that the US would resume its previous actions if negotiations failed. In contrast, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei claimed there was no direct dialogue with the US but confirmed talks with Oman to establish maritime traffic mechanisms in the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran has stated it will refrain from retaliation as long as the US maintains its pause.
Energy Commodities
The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with vessel traffic significantly reduced. Brent crude is priced around $88, and WTI at $82, reflecting declines of 15% and 12% respectively since Thursday's peaks. Natural gas prices are also falling, with the September contract on the Dutch TTF exchange at $58 per MWh and NATGAS at $2.75 per MMBtu.
Stock Market Overview
The decline in energy commodity prices has positively impacted global market sentiment, particularly in Europe, where the German DAX rose by 1% and the Spanish Ibex 35 by 0.8%. However, the US markets showed mixed results: the Dow Jones increased by 0.5%, the S&P 500 remained flat, and the Nasdaq 100 fell by 0.2%, largely due to poor performance in the semiconductor sector. Notable declines included SanDisk (-11.3%), ASML (-5.4%), Nvidia (-5%), and Seagate (-4%). As a result, Apple has overtaken Nvidia as the company with the highest market capitalization at $4.95 trillion.
Asian Market Reactions
The sell-off in the semiconductor sector also affected Asian markets, with the Korean KOSPI index dropping over 10%, led by Samsung (-13.2%) and SK Hynix (-7.5%). The Japanese Nikkei 225 fell by 4.3%, and the Chinese Shanghai SE Composite decreased by 1.3%, while the Hang Seng index managed a slight gain of 0.2%.
Precious Metals
Precious metal prices showed volatility, initially gaining but later declining. Gold is currently priced at approximately $4045 per troy ounce (down 0.8%), and silver at $57.2 (down 2.1%).
Macroeconomic Data and Monetary Policy
Recent economic data releases were limited, but the second half of the week is expected to bring more insights, particularly with inflation data from Europe and the US. The Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan are all set to meet this week, with no changes in interest rates anticipated but a hawkish tone expected from all central banks.
Germany
The Ifo business climate index in Germany rose to 86.6, indicating improved business expectations, although the current situation assessment did not show similar improvement.
United States
Durable goods orders in the US increased by 0.3% in June, falling short of the expected 2.5% increase, primarily due to weaker demand in the transport sector. However, core capital goods orders remained solid, with notable growth in AI-related spending.