Technical Analysis Summary: AUD/USD and ASX 200

Overview

The recent inflation report from Australia has led to significant movements in the AUD/USD currency pair and the ASX 200 index. The report indicated a cooling in inflation, which has sparked speculation regarding a potential rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

AUD/USD Analysis

The AUD/USD pair has recently tested a critical support level at 0.6247. This level has historically acted as both support and resistance, making it a pivotal point for traders. A failure to maintain above this level could lead to further declines.

If the price breaks below 0.6247 and holds, traders may consider entering short positions, targeting levels around 0.6170 and the January 13 swing low of 0.6130. Conversely, if the price rebounds and holds above 0.6247, long positions could be established, with a stop-loss placed below this support level. Resistance levels to watch above include the 50-day moving average and 0.6337.

ASX 200 Analysis

The ASX 200 SPI futures have reached new highs for 2025, breaking through the 8400 level, which has been a significant barrier in recent months. A close above 8440 would enhance the likelihood of a rally towards the record high of 8546 set in late December.

Technical indicators such as the MACD and RSI (14) are currently showing bullish signals, suggesting that dip-buying strategies may be more favorable than selling into strength. Minor resistance is noted at 8481, while recent buying interest has emerged around 8340. A break below the 50-day moving average and the uptrend from December's swing lows would shift the market bias to bearish.