Natural Gas Price Forecast: Testing Key Resistance Near 200-Day Average

Author: Bruce Powers

Published: February 5, 2026

Overview

The article discusses the current state of the natural gas market, highlighting its consolidation below the 200-day moving average. A breakout above this average is necessary to confirm a bullish reversal and set higher Fibonacci targets.

Current Market Conditions

Natural gas prices recently tested resistance near the 200-day average, reaching a high of $3.57. Despite establishing a second consecutive day of higher daily highs and lows, sellers remain dominant below the 200-day average, currently at $3.59. A sustained recovery above this average, along with the week’s high of $3.74, is essential for indicating a bullish reversal.

Weekly Price Range

This week’s trading range is defined between $3.16 and $3.74, establishing near-term support and resistance levels. A drop below the lower boundary could trigger further selling, risking the January higher swing low. However, a quick recovery from the weekly low would maintain the current support zone.

Volatility and Upside Targets

The article notes that recent volatility in natural gas prices could return following a sustained breakout above this week’s high. The recent higher swing low and high have established the channel boundaries, suggesting that similar movements may occur again. Initial upside targets include the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $4.79, which coincides with the rising middle channel line, indicating a potential pivot zone.

Key Support Levels

On the downside, maintaining support above the weekly low of $3.16 is crucial. This level leads down to the higher swing low of $3.01 from the previous month, which is significant for defining the trend structure. The long-term rising trendline also serves as a critical support area, reinforced by the recent January peak of $7.44, which faced resistance near the top parallel line of the trend channel.

Conclusion

The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring natural gas prices as they approach key resistance levels. A breakout above the 200-day average could signal a bullish trend, while maintaining support above critical levels is essential for sustaining the current market structure.

About the Author

Bruce Powers is a seasoned finance professional with over 20 years of experience in financial markets. He holds an MBA and is a CMT® charter holder, having served as head of trading strategy at hedge funds and as a corporate advisor for trading firms.