Gold Price Forecast: Key Support Holds Amid Short-Term Weakness

Author: Bruce Powers

Published: February 18, 2026

Overview

The article discusses the current state of gold prices, highlighting a period of short-term weakness while maintaining potential for recovery. Key support levels are identified, and the implications of these levels for future price movements are analyzed.

Current Price Action

Gold recently reached a high of $5,011, testing resistance at the 20-day moving average for two consecutive days. This indicates ongoing short-term weakness until the price can reclaim this average, currently at $5,003. The near-term support is identified at $4,842, and a break below this level could lead to a deeper pullback from the recent swing high of $5,119.

Key Support Levels and Swing Analysis

Critical support is noted at the 50-day moving average, which is currently at $4,673 and rising. The recent swing low of $4,655 is also significant; if this level is breached, it could invalidate the bullish structure established by the recent price movements. The article emphasizes the importance of these support levels in determining the next potential price action for gold.

Long-Term Trend Context

For long-term investors, the article discusses the relevance of the rising trend channel. Despite a significant decline of 21.4% from the peak of $5,598, the support at the 50-day average has held, leading to a reversal. The confluence of the 50-day average and the top of the trend channel reinforces the importance of this support zone.

Volatility and Short-Term Outlook

Volatility in gold prices has decreased recently, suggesting a period of consolidation. While the downside risks are clear, the potential for an upside remains. The article notes that a new high is not expected in the near term, with gold likely to trade between the 50-day average and the previous peak of $5,598. A decisive rally above the recent high of $5,010 could lead to a recovery towards the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement target at $5,345.

Conclusion

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the current gold market, emphasizing the importance of key support levels and the potential for recovery despite short-term weaknesses. Investors are advised to monitor these levels closely as they could dictate future price movements.