Silver Price Forecast: Yield Reversal Sinks Payrolls Rally

Author: James Hyerczyk

Published: October 4, 2026

Key Highlights

• Silver prices initially surged to $62.09 following a weak payroll report but fell back to $60.37 as Treasury yields reversed higher.
• The 10-year Treasury yield increased from 5.157% to 5.275%, impacting silver's price trajectory.
• The bearish bias remains below the $60.835 level, with potential support at $59.69, $56.56, and $54.78.

Market Overview

On the day of the report, spot silver experienced significant volatility. It opened at $60.95, peaked at $62.09 shortly after the employment data release, and then dropped to a low of $59.69. The closing price of $60.37 represented a decline of 1.02% for the day.

Technical Analysis

The daily swing chart indicates a downtrend for silver. A move above $67.55 would signal a trend reversal, while a drop below $59.69 could confirm a continuation of the downtrend. The minor trend also turned down after briefly rising earlier in the session, with a new minor top established at $62.09.

Impact of Payrolls Report

The U.S. September Non-Farm Payrolls report showed a disappointing addition of only 29,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 90,000. This led to a temporary spike in silver and gold prices, with silver reaching $62.09 and gold hitting $4,227.53. However, as the 10-year Treasury yield reversed its initial decline, both metals lost ground.

10-Year Treasury Yield Analysis

The 10-year Treasury yield opened at 5.243%, dipped to 5.157% post-report, but ultimately closed higher at 5.275%. This yield movement was pivotal in determining the price action of silver and gold throughout the trading session.

Conclusion and Outlook

As silver settled below the critical long-term level of $60.835, the outlook remains bearish unless it can reclaim this level. Traders should watch for potential support at $59.69, with further downside targets at $56.56 and $54.78. The market's reaction to the payrolls report and subsequent yield movements will be crucial in shaping silver's near-term direction.

What to Watch Next

Investors should keep an eye on upcoming economic data releases and the performance of the 10-year Treasury yield, as these factors will likely influence silver prices in the coming weeks.