Weekly Market Preview Summary
Author: Michael J. Kramer, Founder of Mott Capital Management
Date: 27 June 2025
Overview
The week beginning Monday, 30 June 2025, is expected to be a holiday-shortened trading week in the US due to the 4 July holiday. US markets will operate for only half a day on 3 July and will be closed on 4 July. This condensed schedule will feature a busy lineup of economic data releases, although the earnings front is relatively quiet.
Key Economic Data Releases
- Global PMIs: Manufacturing PMI data will be released on 1 July, followed by services PMI data on 3 July. The dollar is currently trading weaker against most major currencies, with GBP/USD showing potential for a breakout towards $1.42.
- US JOLTS Report: Scheduled for 1 July, this report on job openings has been trending lower and is known for its unpredictability, which can lead to market volatility. The EUR/USD is expected to be influenced by this data, with the euro recently strengthening against the dollar.
- US Jobs Report: On 3 July, the report is anticipated to show an increase of 129,000 non-farm payroll jobs in June, down from 139,000 in May. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%, but there are indications it could rise, which may lead to a decline in Treasury yields and affect the USD/JPY exchange rate.
Market Analysis
The analysis indicates that the GBP/USD is on the verge of a significant upward movement, while the EUR/USD has recently broken above key resistance levels. The USD/JPY is showing signs of downward momentum, with a potential target below ¥140 if the US data disappoints.
Upcoming Economic Events
Here are some major upcoming economic announcements and scheduled company reports:
- Monday, 30 June: China Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs, Japan Industrial Production, UK GDP (Q1, final)
- Tuesday, 1 July: Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings
- Wednesday, 2 July: Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, US ADP Employment Change
- Thursday, 3 July: US Jobs Report, ISM Services PMI, Factory Orders
- Friday, 4 July: Eurozone Producer Price Index, UK S&P Global Construction PMI, US Independence Day (public holiday)
Conclusion
This week presents a mix of critical economic data that could influence market movements, particularly in the foreign exchange markets. Traders should remain vigilant as the holiday-shortened week may lead to increased volatility.