Market Analysis Summary - February 13, 2026

As global markets prepare for a relatively calm week, several key economic events are on the horizon that could influence trading strategies. The United States is observing a long weekend for Washington’s Birthday, while China is entering its week-long Lunar New Year celebrations, leading to partial market closures. Additionally, Brazil is in the final stages of Carnival, which is expected to thin liquidity further. Despite this holiday-induced quiet, significant volatility catalysts are anticipated, including the release of the FOMC minutes, the PCE inflation report, and a critical rate decision from New Zealand.

Key Markets to Watch

• AUD/NZD
• US500
• Aluminum

AUD/NZD

The AUD/NZD currency pair has reached its highest levels since 2013, driven by a rally in precious and industrial metals, with Australia being a major producer. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has adopted a hawkish stance, which contrasts with the expected policy decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) this Wednesday. The consensus anticipates the RBNZ to maintain its cash rate at 2.25%. While inflation in New Zealand has risen above 3%, economic vulnerabilities are limiting the central bank's ability to tighten aggressively. Market participants are particularly focused on the RBNZ's forward guidance, which could influence the AUD/NZD pair significantly.

US500

The US500 index will see limited trading on Monday due to market closures, with Wall Street futures operating on a reduced schedule. Following a constructive start to the previous week, the index faced a downturn, reflecting concerns over escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding US-Iran relations, and a cooling interest in AI stocks. The ambiguity surrounding the Federal Reserve's future policy path remains a primary concern, especially with a robust labor market complicating the case for immediate easing. Key events to watch include the FOMC minutes release on Wednesday and the PCE report on Friday, which will provide insights into inflation trends.

Aluminum

Aluminum prices have seen significant volatility, particularly at the beginning of February, but have since retreated towards the $3,000 per tonne mark, erasing gains made in 2026. The market is currently facing two main challenges: a seasonal slowdown in industrial activity in China due to the Lunar New Year and potential changes in US trade policy regarding tariffs on aluminum and steel. Until there is clarity on these fronts or a resurgence in demand from China post-holiday, the upside for aluminum prices appears limited.

Conclusion

As the markets navigate through this period of relative calm, investors should remain vigilant regarding the upcoming economic data releases and central bank decisions that could significantly impact trading strategies across the AUD/NZD, US500, and aluminum markets.