US-Iran Report Near-Final Agreement Draft; New Fed Chair Takes the Helm Today
By Martin Lam
Key Takeaways
The US and Iran are reportedly close to finalizing a draft for a peace agreement, with US Secretary of State Rubio noting “some positive signs” in the negotiations. However, both nations remain firm on their positions regarding Tehran’s uranium stockpiles and control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Today's Market Focus
Investors are closely monitoring the developments surrounding the potential Middle East peace deal. Key economic indicators include:
- UK April Retail Sales MoM, forecasted at -0.6% (previously 0.7%), indicating the impact of rising prices on consumer spending.
- The final US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for May, expected to remain steady at 48.2, with markets looking for shifts in consumer sentiment regarding the economy, inflation, and the labor market.
- The swearing-in of the newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair, Warsh, with traders keenly awaiting his first official address for insights on future monetary policy.
Global Market Review (22/05/2026)
US initial jobless claims fell last week, indicating resilience in the labor market. Optimism over US-Iran negotiations led to a slight increase in Wall Street indices, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.55% to a new record high. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also saw modest gains. US Treasury yields decreased, while the US Dollar Index (DXY) remained flat as traders weighed the potential for a diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East.
Gold prices stabilized after a 1% intraday slump, supported by a retracement in the dollar and Treasury yields. Conversely, crude oil prices fell over 1% to a nearly two-week low amid the diplomatic progress, with OPEC+ considering a modest output hike for July.
Key Events Today
- 14:00 EU GERMANY GfK Consumer Confidence JUN
- 14:00 GB Retail Sales APR
- 16:00 EU GERMANY Ifo Business Climate MAY
- 22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final MAY
Market Analysis (22/05/2026)
EURUSD
Resistance: 1.1655/1.1676 | Support: 1.1584/1.1567
Despite lower-than-expected Eurozone Manufacturing and Services PMIs, progress in US-Iran negotiations provided support for the Euro, allowing the currency pair to recover from earlier losses.
GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.3486/1.3519 | Support: 1.3381/1.3349
The UK’s Services PMI unexpectedly slipped into contraction, but comments from Bank of England officials supported policy tightening, providing late-session support for GBP/USD.
USDJPY
Resistance: 159.39/159.74 | Support: 158.62/158.28
Japan’s April CPI rose 1.4% year-on-year, with the core CPI hitting a four-year low, leading to a slight decline in the Yen.
US Crude Oil Futures (JUL)
Resistance: 101.30/103.29 | Support: 94.98/93.03
WTI oil prices fell over 1% as optimism about US-Iran peace talks grew, although prices rebounded slightly amid ongoing tensions.
Spot Gold (XAU/USD)
Resistance: 4572/4605 | Support: 4500/4468
Gold prices remained flat as the market awaited further developments regarding the US-Iran situation and the new Fed Chair's inauguration.
Dow Jones Futures
Resistance: 50437/50582 | Support: 50065/49953
Wall Street closed higher, driven by easing oil prices and improving expectations for US-Iran peace talks.
NASDAQ 100
Resistance: 29886/30285 | Support: 29006/28619
The Nasdaq closed slightly higher, supported by retreating US Treasury yields despite mixed earnings reports.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Resistance: 77938/78873 | Support: 76084/74912
Bitcoin advanced, hovering around $78,000, buoyed by hopes of progress in US-Iran negotiations.