Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Under $60K Likely on Rising September Fed Rate Hike Bets
By Yashu Gola | Updated: July 09, 2026
Key Points
- September Fed rate-hike odds have climbed above 50%, increasing macro pressure on Bitcoin.
- Bitcoin’s rebound faces major resistance near $63,800–$64,000 after a four-hour rising wedge breakdown.
- A rejection could send BTC below $60,000 toward the wedge’s downside target near $59,300.
Market Overview
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently under pressure, threatening to drop below the $60,000 mark as futures traders increase their bets on a potential Federal Reserve rate hike in September. The odds of a rate increase have surpassed 50%, which is testing critical psychological support levels for Bitcoin.
Fed Rate Hike Expectations
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants now assign a 50.8% probability to the Federal Reserve raising its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at the upcoming meeting on September 16. This marks a significant shift from just a month ago when a majority of traders anticipated a pause in rate hikes.
The recent FOMC minutes revealed divisions among central bank officials regarding persistent inflation pressures, with some advocating for rate hikes if inflation remains stubborn.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
Following the release of the Fed minutes, Bitcoin experienced a roughly 3% decline but managed to recover, tracking a broader rebound in global tech stocks. The recovery was fueled by optimism surrounding AI chip demand, particularly after Apple announced a significant supply deal with Broadcom.
Bitcoin is currently attempting to recover from a breakdown below a rising wedge pattern on the four-hour chart. The rebound is approaching a critical resistance zone between $63,800 and $64,000, which aligns with the 200-4H EMA and the former lower trendline of the wedge. A rejection from this area could confirm the breakdown and push Bitcoin below $60,000, targeting a downside level near $59,300.
Conversely, a decisive close above $64,000 could invalidate the bearish outlook and enhance Bitcoin's chances of a short-term recovery towards higher resistance levels.