Summary of Australian Dollar and China GDP Article
The article discusses the recent performance of the Australian dollar (AUD) against the US dollar (USD) and the anticipated economic data from China. As of July 14, 2025, the AUD has slightly decreased, trading at 0.6555, which is a 0.32% decline for the day. The Australian dollar had previously benefited from a weaker US dollar, reaching a high of 0.6593, marking its strongest position since November 2024.
China's Economic Outlook
The article highlights expectations for China's GDP growth, projected to ease to 5.1% in the second quarter of 2025, following two consecutive quarters of 5.4% growth. This figure aligns with the government's annual growth target of approximately 5.0%. Analysts suggest that policymakers would be satisfied if this target is surpassed for a third consecutive quarter.
Additionally, China's exports showed a year-on-year increase of 5.8% in June, exceeding the consensus estimate of 5.0% and significantly higher than the 4.8% growth recorded in May. This increase is attributed to a trade truce with the US, which has reduced tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 55%. However, the economic outlook remains uncertain as the tariff truce is set to expire in August.
Upcoming Economic Data
The article also mentions that China is expected to release data on industrial production and retail sales for June. Forecasts indicate a decline in industrial production growth to 5.6% from 5.8%, while retail sales are anticipated to drop to 5.6%, down from 6.4% in May, which was the highest level since December 2023.
In Australia, the Westpac Consumer Sentiment report is scheduled for release on Tuesday, with a forecasted increase of 0.4% for July, following a similar gain in June. Despite the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) rate cut in May, consumer sentiment remains cautious.
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Update
The RBA surprised markets by maintaining the cash rate at 3.85%, despite expectations for a quarter-point cut. The next RBA meeting is set for August 12, where further monetary policy decisions will be discussed.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair is currently testing support at 0.6562, with additional support levels at 0.6550. Resistance levels are identified at 0.6570 and 0.6582, indicating potential price movements in the near term.
Overall, the article provides insights into the interplay between the Australian dollar and the Chinese economy, highlighting key economic indicators and market expectations that could influence currency movements in the coming weeks.