Natural Gas Futures Analysis

Author: James Hyerczyk

Date: February 17, 2026

Overview

Natural gas futures have recently dipped below $3.055 as the market transitions from winter to spring, a period known as the shoulder season. This transition typically leads to a decrease in demand as temperatures moderate, allowing for increased production and supply rebuilding ahead of the summer cooling season.

Weather Impact on Demand

The weather forecast indicates a warmer trend from February 25 to March 1, which is expected to suppress natural gas prices. Although there may be a brief cold snap from February 21 to February 25, traders are already looking beyond this temporary fluctuation, anticipating warmer conditions thereafter.

Production Outlook

Despite some analysts expressing optimism about the summer outlook due to lower storage levels, there are concerns that increased production could counteract this bullish sentiment. Recent data from Morgan Stanley indicates that production in the Lower 48 states has risen to approximately 107.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d), up 1.5 bcf/d from January averages.

Technical Analysis

The technical outlook for natural gas remains bearish, with the main swing chart indicating a downward trend. The 50-day moving average and resistance levels between $3.284 and $3.502 are likely to cap any upward attempts. Conversely, potential downside targets are identified at levels below $3.00, specifically between $2.595 to $2.554 and $2.578 to $2.480.

Market Sentiment

With bearish fundamentals and a corresponding chart pattern, the market faces a critical question: will prices experience a rapid decline to support levels, or will they gradually drift lower? The prevailing sentiment suggests a cautious approach as traders navigate these dynamics.

Conclusion

The natural gas market is currently characterized by a bearish outlook influenced by seasonal demand shifts, production increases, and technical resistance levels. Traders are advised to monitor weather patterns and production data closely as these factors will significantly impact future price movements.