Summary of COT Report: Speculators Positioning Ahead of 2026

In the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released after a delay due to the US government shutdown, key insights into the positioning of hedge funds and speculators in the commodities and forex markets are highlighted for the week ending December 30, 2025.

Forex Market Insights

The report indicates a significant increase in non-commercial dollar short positions against eight IMM FX futures, which surged by one-third to USD 10.5 billion, reaching levels not seen since July. This shift was primarily driven by renewed demand for the euro (EUR), Australian dollar (AUD), and Canadian dollar (CAD). The AUD and CAD saw their net shorts reduced to USD 3.7 billion and USD 8.3 billion respectively, with the CAD hitting a 21-month low. The euro remains the largest long position against the dollar, with speculators adding approximately USD 10 billion over the past five weeks, bringing the net long to 157,000 contracts.

Commodities Market Overview

The commodities sector experienced a robust performance, returning nearly 16% in 2025, largely driven by metals such as silver (+139%), gold (+62%), and copper (+39%). However, the report notes that net-long positions in major crude oil futures ended the year at a record low of just 113,000 contracts, indicating a lack of bullish conviction among traders.

Despite a strong rally in precious metals and platinum group metals (PGMs) during the latter half of the year, leveraged accounts reduced their net-long positions. This adjustment was not due to a lack of confidence but rather a response to rising prices that necessitated scaling back positions to maintain stable nominal exposure. COMEX gold concluded the year with a net long of 127,000 contracts, down from a peak of 234,000 contracts in January, yet still representing a nominal value of around USD 56 billion.

Future Outlook

The upcoming COT report will delve into the impact of recent US actions in Venezuela on market positioning and will also revisit developments in the agricultural sector, particularly regarding soybeans, which experienced volatility amid fluctuating demand expectations from China.

Conclusion

This COT report provides valuable insights into how speculators are positioning themselves in the forex and commodities markets as 2026 approaches, reflecting broader trends and potential market movements influenced by geopolitical and economic factors.