Market Analysis Summary: USD/CAD and Canadian Employment Data
Date: April 10, 2026
Author: Elior Manier
Overview
The recent Canadian employment data revealed a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 6.7%, down from 6.8%. However, wage growth remains elevated at 4.7% year-over-year, which could prompt the Bank of Canada (BoC) to consider tightening monetary policy. The data aligns closely with market expectations, indicating a stable yet cautious economic trajectory for Canada.
Impact of Geopolitical Events
A ceasefire between the US and Iran has led to a significant drop in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices, which could affect the Canadian dollar (CAD). Despite this, Canada’s status as a major oil producer may bolster the Loonie's prospects in the medium term, especially as demand for Canadian crude rises.
Technical Analysis of USD/CAD
The USD/CAD currency pair has formed a substantial trading range following a recent rally. A double top formation has led to a retracement of approximately 2,000 pips, breaking the previous bullish channel. The pair is currently testing the 1.38 support level, which is critical for determining future price movements.
Key Technical Levels
Resistance Levels:
- 50-Hour Moving Average: 1.3835
- 1.3850 - 1.3870 Momentum Pivot
- 1.39 to 1.3925 (Support turned resistance)
- 1.3950 (Mini-resistance)
- 1.40 (Major resistance)
Support Levels:
- 1.38 (Mini-support)
- 1.3750 (Support)
- 1.3630 to 1.3660 (Key support)
- 1.3550 (Main support)
EUR/CAD Analysis
The EUR/CAD pair has experienced significant volatility, with a 5,000 pip swing recently. It is currently testing the 1.62 resistance level, and a rejection here could signal a bearish trend. Conversely, breaking above this level may indicate a return to the larger trading range.
Conclusion
Overall, while the Canadian employment data presents a mixed picture, the geopolitical landscape and oil prices will play crucial roles in shaping the CAD's future. Traders should closely monitor the technical levels outlined for both USD/CAD and EUR/CAD to navigate potential market movements effectively.