Natural Gas Price Forecast: Key Support Tests Trend Direction

Author: Bruce Powers

Published: March 17, 2026

Overview

The article discusses the current state of natural gas prices, which are consolidating near a significant support level defined by the 20-day moving average. Traders are closely monitoring this situation for a decisive move that could indicate either a resurgence in strength or a continuation of the downward trend.

Resistance and Support Levels

Natural gas has recently tested support around the 20-day moving average, which it reclaimed on March 6. Following this, it encountered resistance at $3.49, a level that has been significant in the past, marking both support and resistance since April 2025. The presence of a downtrend line and an uptrend line near this price point has contributed to the current consolidation phase.

Market Patterns

A broadening formation is developing in the natural gas market, characterized by two diverging trendlines. Recent price action has shown breaks below long-term rising parallel trendlines, indicating broader downward pressure. The article notes that these trendlines have acted as resistance during recent price increases, including the attempt to reach $3.49.

Key Price Levels

The article identifies Monday's low of $2.98 as a critical short-term support level, aligning with the 20-day moving average at $3.01. The price remains compressed around this moving average, highlighting its importance as a pivot point for future movements.

Potential Scenarios

Upside Scenario

If natural gas prices can recover the lower swing high at $3.29, it may indicate strengthening momentum, potentially leading to a breakout above the previous high of $3.49. Key resistance levels to watch would be the 200-day moving average at $3.55 and the 100-day moving average at $3.66. A sustained reclaim of these averages would provide stronger evidence of a bullish trend.

Downside Risk

Conversely, if the price fails to hold above the 20-day moving average and breaks below the recent higher swing low at $2.81, it could lead to a lower swing low and a test of the lower boundary of the broadening formation. The previous swing low at $2.58 may serve as the next support zone, emphasizing the critical nature of the 20-day moving average as a short-term inflection point.

Conclusion

The article concludes that the natural gas market is at a pivotal point, with the potential for significant movement in either direction depending on the behavior around key support and resistance levels. Traders are advised to remain vigilant as the market navigates this critical phase.