Market Analysis Summary: U.S.-Iran Talks Conflict; ADP Jobs and Services PMI Focus

Author: Martin Lam

Date: June 3, 2026

Key Takeaways

• Investors are seeking clarity on the Middle East situation amid mixed signals from the U.S. and Iran.
• Positive U.S. economic data, particularly a rise in JOLTS job openings, has boosted U.S. stocks and the dollar.
• Gold and crude oil prices have also seen gains.
• Today's focus is on U.S. economic data, with expectations for May ADP employment to increase by 117,000, indicating a resilient labor market.
• The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will provide insights into the health of the services sector.
• Attention will later shift to the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book for signs of economic slowdowns and inflation trends.

Global Market Review

U.S. job openings surged in April, leading Wall Street to new record highs. The Dow rose by 0.45%, the S&P 500 gained 0.13% to surpass 7,600, and the Nasdaq increased by 0.03%. Treasury yields were mixed, and the dollar edged higher. Gold prices closed up 0.03% at $4,484.59 per ounce, while crude oil reached a one-week high.

Key Events Today

• 07:00 AU Services & Composite PMI Final MAY
• 08:30 JP Services & Composite PMI Final MAY
• 09:30 AU GDP Q1
• 09:45 CN Services & Composite PMI MAY
• 15:55 EU GERMANY Services & Composite PMI Final MAY
• 16:00 EU Services & Composite PMI Final MAY
• 16:30 GB Services & Composite PMI Final MAY
• 16:30 BoJ Gov Ueda Speech
• 17:00 EU PPI APR
• 20:15 US ADP Employment Change MAY
• 21:45 US Services & Composite PMI Final MAY
• 22:00 US ISM Services PMI MAY
• 22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change

Market Analysis

EUR/USD

Resistance: 1.1649 / 1.1666 | Support: 1.1611 / 1.1593

Eurozone May inflation increases, supporting a potential rate hike by the European Central Bank. The pair is currently in a wait-and-see mode, trading within a narrow range around the 10-day moving average.

GBP/USD

Resistance: 1.3522 / 1.3564 | Support: 1.3386 / 1.3343

GBP/USD rebounded from losses but remained in a tight trading range as the Bank of England emphasizes the importance of reducing UK inflation.

USD/JPY

Resistance: 160.08 / 160.41 | Support: 159.73 / 159.39

USD/JPY gained for consecutive days, reaching fresh highs not seen since April 30, with concerns about possible Japanese government intervention as it approaches the 160 level.

Crude Oil Futures

Resistance: 96.47 / 98.38 | Support: 92.65 / 90.28

Market concerns over U.S.-Iran peace talks have deepened, causing slight increases in crude oil prices. Traders are awaiting more clarity on the negotiations.

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4504 / 4531 | Support: 4452 / 4419

Gold prices rose slightly but were limited by uncertainty around U.S.-Iran peace negotiations. The metal ended the session below $4,500.

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 51391 / 51452 | Support: 51200 / 51140

Dow reached record highs again, driven by enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, despite mixed signals about the U.S.-Iran situation.

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 30784 / 30912 | Support: 30362 / 30231

Chip stocks maintained strong momentum, while “Big Tech” had mixed results. Nasdaq ended the day with a modest gain.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 69675/71784 | Support: 64955/62881

Bitcoin fell to a two-month low after corporate holder Strategy sold its holdings for the first time in nearly three-and-a-half years.

Conclusion

The market remains cautious as investors await key economic data releases that could influence trading directions. The ongoing U.S.-Iran talks and their implications on oil prices and market sentiment are also critical to watch.